Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
July Week 4 AoI: Gulf of Mexico This, however looks more substantial. It's got nowhere to go but into a wall of 30-knot shear though. The shear throughout the Gulf is stiffling right now. -- SkyFury 22:28, 25 July 2007 (UTC) :It's impressive, but I don't see this doing anything, it's sheered and fast moving towards land, and none of the major tropical models pick up on anything. It's worth noting, though, that a non-tropical model shows a TS moving into the upper Texas coast in about 84hrs. Cyclone1(22:34 UTC -25/07/2007) ::Lokking very impressive lately! I'm surprised it's not an invest. Cyclone1(17:06 UTC -26/07/2007) :::Yeah, it almost looks like it has an eywall feature on the B/W IR. This thing looks pretty impressive for a storm that's under 30-knot shear. -- SkyFury 18:52, 26 July 2007 (UTC) ::::Less convection now, it seems to be dying a little bit, but it continues to become more organized (though very little organization is present, and, as the NHC states, it really hasn't dropped much in the way of surface pressure). It looks sheared. 68.100.190.56 23:33, 26 July 2007 (UTC) :::::I don't think the lack of development is terribly comforting to Texas right now. -- SkyFury 19:41, 27 July 2007 (UTC) ::::::Dying 68.100.190.56 21:20, 27 July 2007 (UTC) AoI: Major wave rolling off of Africa, models develop This is the wave that the GFS, CMC, UKMET, and the EURO have been developing. It's pretty big, and conditions ahead of it are pretty good. Cyclone1(01:24 UTC -27/07/2007) :GFS calling for an east coast approach/landfall around August 7-8. Unlikely, maybe. But it holds a plausible run aswell, keeping it at TS storm strength until it hits Puerto Rico. Looks like this may be the next one. And it's wave after wave after that, Welcome to the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Finally. Cyclone1(05:11 UTC -27/07/2007) ::Crud! That thing's enormous! Half of the wave is moderate convection!68.100.190.56 18:49, 27 July 2007 (UTC) :::Hmph! If it still has that much convection when it reaches the Windward Islands and has a low pressure with it, then I'll be interested. That's the stretch of Atlantic that seperates the threats from the posers. -- SkyFury 19:34, 27 July 2007 (UTC) ::::Lost a lot of it. Still looks very impressive on visible. Nice looking wave overall, I think it still has a decent chance of developing. 68.100.190.56 21:21, 27 July 2007 (UTC) :::::Dry air is nowhere to be found, SAL is way far north, and sheer isn't there. More than 75% chance of development in my book. Cyclone1(21:27 UTC -27/07/2007) Basically dead now... hmmm. 71.101.157.94 03L.Chantal 98L.INVEST East of the Bahamas. – NSLE 14:42, 28 July 2007 (UTC) :What?! Wow! We have 3 AoI's and not one of them became 98L. That's crazy. It's looking pretty good. Cyclone1(14:49 UTC -28/07/2007) FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH 11:30am TWO. Cyclone1(15:03 UTC -28/07/2007) :Ships make this mess a hurricane in 96 hours. We'll see what happens. -- WmE 15:26, 28 July 2007 (UTC) ::Nice (Edit: Very nice) 68.100.190.56 16:19, 28 July 2007 (UTC) :::Now this one is more interesting. It already has some banding. The air around it is kind of stable, but I think this one actually has a chance. The Gulf of Mexico thing doesn't look dead yet, either. All the models take it away from land, so we can root for this one I think. Chantal is overdue. -- SkyFury 17:15, 28 July 2007 (UTC) CMC calls for a hurricane and a Canadian impact. loop Cyclone1(17:43 UTC -28/07/2007) :GFDL does, too. Cyclone1(19:04 UTC -28/07/2007) ::Looks like the convection is dying a little, but it still seems to be going on strong. If (when) it makes it up the coast it will probably make it at least to TS strength (quite possibly hurricane, from what the models say). 68.100.190.56 23:34, 28 July 2007 (UTC) Convection should refire at night, which is now, so watch for that. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to have TD-3 tomorrow. Recon flight scheduled for around 4pm. Cyclone1(01:05 UTC -29/07/2007) TAFB dropped their forecast of a low forming, so the recon scheduled for tomorrow will most likely be canceled. I think 98L has a chance of developing, but right now it doesn't look like much. We'll just have to wait and see. Cainer91 01:54, 29 July 2007 (UTC) :This one looks pretty good. I thought I saw evidence in the IR loop of an LLCC forming but I could be hallucinating. The little spot of deep convection to the northwest of this Invest (Andrea territory) looks interesting. Convection has increased and it's a nice little fireball in the IR now. We'll see what sunrise reveals tomorrow. -- SkyFury 03:41, 29 July 2007 (UTC) ::Look excellent this morning. Danger area up. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif I don;t see any reason why recon would be canceled at this point. Cyclone1(12:01 UTC -29/07/2007) :::Better than ever! That looks very nice! Same as when we first saw it yesterday, except perhaps a little more organized. Still nothing bad in front of it either. I feel kind of sorry for Newfoundland. 68.100.190.56 13:08, 29 July 2007 (UTC) A TCFA has been issued. -- WmE 17:52, 29 July 2007 (UTC) :NRL is calling it "98L.LIMA". http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d178/RattleMan/NRLLima.png Of note, "Lima" is the code word for the letter "L" in the NATO phonetic alphabet. -- RattleMan 18:40, 29 July 2007 (UTC) ::Back as 98L.INVEST now 88.105.89.99 19:20, 29 July 2007 (UTC) :::My god, it's getting better and better (worse and worse)! 68.100.190.56 23:36, 29 July 2007 (UTC) ::::HEH? What are trying to say? The storm is looking better? Cyclone1(01:20 UTC -30/07/2007) I think this Invest has just about had it. Convection is dying off, environmental conditions are marginal, and the SST's are decreasing as it keeps going north. Unless a LLC can form in the next 6-12 hours, I imagine that this will just be another Invest to bury in the graveyard. Cainer91 02:36, 30 July 2007 (UTC) :I agree, I doubt Chantal will come from this, looks like the wave in the mid Atlantic will end up being our 99, though. Cyclone1(02:47 UTC -30/07/2007) ::Ok, now it's dead. It did look really good for an hour or two back there yesterday, I'm sure of that. 68.100.190.56 11:13, 30 July 2007 (UTC) :::Nope, it's very much alive! It's looking much better this morning. And for the first time, we have to watch two systems for development. Cyclone1(14:05 UTC -30/07/2007) ::::Look at the models as well! Still tropical storm strength from most of them, and the remnants still develop into a powerful low south of Greenland. If you look closely there's a very clear low, and convection is still strong. Yesterday, though, that interesting feature that I thought was looking better was a blob with a tail, and very clear rotation. Although I'm not sure what it's chances are, it's looking pretty good (though not as good as it did a few days ago). 68.100.190.56 14:43, 30 July 2007 (UTC) I don't think it's ever looked better actually. Cyclone1(15:00 UTC -30/07/2007) FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. :Ooh! Looks good! This one's got a real chance. -- SkyFury 17:53, 30 July 2007 (UTC) ::Looks like a Subtropical depression/storm to me. 5:00 advisory will tell. Cyclone1(18:35 UTC -30/07/2007) Wow, I was pretty surprised when I noticed how good 98L is looking. I'm guessing we'll have at least a Subtropical Depression, possibly Tropical, by the 10:30 advisory. It's quite a bit like Barry; it's developing in a very high shear area (20-40 knots) and most of the convection is displaced to the North and East quadrants. But it has a very nicely defined LLC, and alright SST's for further strengthening. Cainer91 20:52, 30 July 2007 (UTC) :Looking excellent! 10 bucks says we get a Chantal or a Three by tonight. Cyclone1(21:14 UTC -30/07/2007) 03L.NONAME Holy crap! I didn't lose 10 bucks! 11:00 advisory should show Tropical depression 3, and for the first time in 2 months we have a tropical cyclone. Woo hoo! Cyclone1(02:05 UTC -31/07/2007) :Could be Subtropical Depression Three. Not exactly surprising as it looks like one to me. Will it become Chantal? CrazyC83 02:23, 31 July 2007 (UTC) ::I hope so. Cyclone1(02:40 UTC -31/07/2007) Tropical Depression Three Tropical! Wow. Cyclone1(02:43 UTC -31/07/2007) :Steve Lyons says this will become a tropical storm overnight. Lyons knows all. Cyclone1(02:53 UTC -31/07/2007) ::If you told me that we would have a Tropical Depression last night, I wouldn't have believed you. But, here we are. Anyway, TD Three keeps looking better. I fully expect this to continue strengthening to become Chantal in the morning. A storm in July, who knew? Cainer91 04:13, 31 July 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Chantal As of an NHC update, it is now a tropical storm. Cyclone1(13:15 UTC -31/07/2007) :Uh... I've never seen discussion about a tropical storm this quiet before... Cyclone1(16:45 UTC -31/07/2007) ::Probably because it became a depression last night and was upgraded quickly. Well, finally the Atlantic gets off the schnide. Chantal looked quite impressive a couple hours ago. Now the center's a little bit exposed. I don't think she'll last long. The storm's fast becoming extratropical. All eyes are now on that little swirl east of Barbados. Although, I think that low southwest of Chantal looks pretty good. The Atlantic has really gotten hectic in a hurry. -- SkyFury 18:17, 31 July 2007 (UTC) :::It will still have land impacts in Newfoundland though, but 99L bears much more watching. CrazyC83 19:40, 31 July 2007 (UTC) 99L.INVEST AoI According to the TWD, a well defined low to mid level circulation is being observed with a tropical wave coming off the African coast. Moderate to strong convection. Might be interesting. Cyclone1(00:58 UTC -22/07/2007) :No offense, but I have yet to be interested. I don't see much in here -- SkyFury 00:26, 23 July 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah, not much to look at now, but if that sfc low hangs on until tomorrow, we might be looking at 98L. Cyclone1(00:41 UTC -23/07/2007) I think this is the system to watch. ---CWY2190talk 03:39, 23 July 2007 (UTC) :Looks like the LLC kinda fizzled out last night. Convection is still there, though. Cyclone1(15:59 UTC -23/07/2007) ::This is insane! GFS closes off a low, and takes it all the way to the US coast before recurving it! Cyclone1(23:26 UTC -23/07/2007) :::Uh huh. I'll believe it when I see it. -- SkyFury 14:52, 24 July 2007 (UTC) ::::Not looking so farfetched anymore Cyclone1(19:50 UTC -24/07/2007) Convection's dying. Cyclone1(15:17 UTC -25/07/2007) :As soon as I say convection's dying, it starts to refire around 30W and is looking a lot better. I love it. I'll shut up now. Cyclone1(15:50 UTC -25/07/2007) ::I still don't see anything worth looking at down there and I usually have a pretty good eye for tropical shenanegans. -- SkyFury 22:28, 25 July 2007 (UTC) :::What I find intersting is the GFS model develops a tropical depression in 48hrs, and has done so every run since yesterday. The CMC and UKMET also sorta hint at something. I'm sure it's not picking up on this wave though (the 35W one), it's latching onto one of the other ones behind it. We'll see in 48hrs. Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -25/07/2007) ::::Looks like a tiny hurricane, and IR and convection are fairly high. It's really, really small though. I don't remember anything like this yesterday, it popped up overnight. 68.100.190.56 21:25, 26 July 2007 (UTC) SFC low at 45W. We got one! Let's see if it pans out. Also major, MAJOR wave rolling off Africa. (see below) Cyclone1(01:22 UTC -27/07/2007) SFC low around 30W as well. That is the one to watch I think. ---CWY2190talk 05:36, 27 July 2007 (UTC) :I changed the header from "off Africa" to "central Atlantic" to avoid confusion between this one and the wave off of Africa now. Cyclone1(15:02 UTC -28/07/2007) ::I also bumped it up here because It's looking MUCH better. It could be our 99. Convection firing, LLCC looking possible. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html Cyclone1(01:25 UTC -30/07/2007) :::That looks really good (a lot better than 98L is nowadays). I woke up this morning, went to the central Atlantic and refreshed the page a few times to see if I was seeing things right. 68.100.190.56 11:11, 30 July 2007 (UTC) 99L.INVEST Up on the NRL, a buoy from the NHC, and there should be an advisory posted up on the next tropical weather discussion. Looks extremely good, with moderate convection down a little bit but spreading out. LLCC looks very possible (if not already there at this point). I think we have found TD3 (I would not be at all surprised if that's what it becomes when they send out an aircraft). 68.100.190.56 13:35, 30 July 2007 (UTC) :This is definitely the best looking INVEST we've had in a while. I think we may get a 03L.NONAME shortly. Cyclone1(14:02 UTC -30/07/2007) ::Or 04L.NONAME. Anyone look at 98 recently? Looking much like a subtropical storm, and it has a TCFA. Cyclone1(14:08 UTC -30/07/2007) :::Ok, first. This system is not yet organized enough to warrant an upgrade. Second, it looks indeed promising. There may be a LLC, but I'd wait for a Quickscat overpass. Currently it is in a area of dry air, mainly to its north and west. Nevertheless it looks impressive. Shear is quite favorable in the Carribean and this might be a player. And it's not going to go fish because of its low latitude. It has to be watched closely. -- WmE 14:11, 30 July 2007 (UTC) ::::I know that, not even a TCFA. I say soon, I mean within like 24 hours. Personally I think it's a race to the 3 number or the C name between 98 and 99. Both are looking great. Cyclone1(14:14 UTC -30/07/2007) Oh, geez. Cyclone1(15:01 UTC -30/07/2007) :Christ! Think of what'll happen when convection starts refiring! 68.100.190.56 15:46, 30 July 2007 (UTC) Uh oh. This one is causing me to do some significant uncomfortable shifing in my chair. Look where it is: Hurricane Alley. Ivan became Tropical Depression Nine in this general area. BAMS likes this storm and carries a long track toward the Yucatan, unusually long for an early model run. Threatening Cape Verde waves always make me nervous, even if they end up just pulling an Earl. -- SkyFury 17:47, 30 July 2007 (UTC) :Danger area up for both 98 and 99. What an end to July, eh? Cyclone1(22:42 UTC -30/07/2007) ::We may have Chantal AND Dean in the next 24-48 hours! CrazyC83 02:24, 31 July 2007 (UTC) :::This definitely looks like future TD4. Cyclone1(03:10 UTC -31/07/2007) Convection is firing very nicely around the center tonight, and I expect this to become Tropical Depression Four by tomorrow night. Further strengthening will be limited, though, because as soon as it passes the Windwards, it will encounter lots of dry air. Still, if it can build itself up enough in the next 24 hours, it will help keep the stable environment at bay. Cainer91 04:25, 31 July 2007 (UTC) :It appears to be struggling to keep it's deep convection. Cyclone1(13:24 UTC -31/07/2007) ::By the way, it's "its" in that case. 91.64.31.89 15:00, 31 July 2007 (UTC) :::Yeah, I knew that, but I'm not in school right now, so no big deal. I can safely say that 99L has looked worse than it ever has. Cyclone1(16:46 UTC -31/07/2007) ::::It's got time. -- SkyFury 18:19, 31 July 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)